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2017 Week 1 NFL PICKS

Flickr - C_Osett

By Parlay Pete – 

Week one in the NFL (and week 2 in college football) are often the best time to throw down a little wager on a football game.

Vegas is still trying to collect data on the teams in order to get accurate computer simulations of what they think is most likely to happen.

This is the time to strike (Actually last month was the time to strike.  All of these lines have moved for the worse AGAINST my picks except for the PITT game; but I guess that’s a good sign).

My advice is and always will be to only bet single teams or two-teamers. For the not so faint of heart that want some longer odds in their lives, if you have two two-teamers, then combine them into some combinations for 3 or 4 pick parlays.

Here are four picks for NFL WEEK 1.

Falcons (AWAY  -7 vs CHI Bears OPENED -6) – In order to get decent odds, especially in week 1, a bettor usually has to take Road Favorites. 2017 is no exception. The Falcons go to Chicago in Week 1 and I literally don’t see a way that they don’t obliterate the Bears. Even if Jordan Howard is the second coming of Walter Payton, this should still be a two touchdown margin of victory for the Falcons. Devonta’s happy. Matty is still icy. And Julio is Julio. Bank this one and send me my 15% in the mail. You’re welcome.

Panthers (AWAY -6 vs SF 49ers OPENED -4) – The Panthers hit the road to San Francisco to start the season versus the 49ers. Usually this is bad news for East Coast teams, but not in Week 1. Cam Newton is coming off a serious rotator cuff surgery. That almost makes me like this game even more. Where Cam is usually selfish around the goal line, this game I see him exploiting the 49ers lack of secondary depth by feeding the (law firm) duo of Kelvin and Olsen in close. This helps keep morale high and everyone engaged, making for a true team effort win. If Cam misses this game, I think I like it even more. Derek Anderson is one of the more serviceable backups and the start of this season could be his last chance to audition for a starting role in the National Football League. This should be CAR in a romper room romp.

Steelers (AWAY -9 vs CLE Browns OPENED -9) – This one is self explanatory. The Browns have lost 11 straight season openers. Period. That being said, if you want more assurance on this one youre a wuss. Kidding. Brock Osweiler could start this one. If he does, bet the farm. If Cody Kessler or Deshone Kizer starts, I’m only marginally less confident in the Steele killing the Browns but barely. This one should be a laugher.

Patriots (HOME -9 vs KC Chiefs OPENED -8) – The Patriots are probably the most vulnerable of the bunch, and that’s only because of the 8 point spread and one man: Tyreek Hill. Alex Smith is still the quarterback and bonafide #1 wideout Jeremy Maclin is gone. The only way this goes bad for the Pats is if it turns into the Tyreek Hill Show. Knowing Bill Belichick’s talent for taking one dimensional team’s one dimension away, I DON’T SEE IT.

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